D. Changing Populations · Changing Populations: Canada's People, Patterns and TrendsCounting Canada: The Census and How Populations Change
D1.1 A1.1 A1.2About 70 minutes
Learning goals- I can explain what demography is and how the Census of Population collects data about people in Canada.
- I can name the major demographic characteristics geographers study.
- I can use the demographic equation to explain why a population grows or shrinks.
- I can calculate percent change in population and compare my province with Canada.
- I can write different types of inquiry questions about population.
Words to know
demography
The study of human populations: their size, structure (age, sex, gender), distribution and how they change.
demographer
A person who studies populations, often using census data and statistics.
census
An official count of every person in a country, with questions about who they are and how they live. Canada holds a Census of Population every five years.
demographic characteristic
A measurable feature of a population, such as size, age, language, Indigenous identity, immigrant status or household type.
natural increase
Births minus deaths. If deaths are higher than births, natural increase is negative.
net migration
People who move in minus people who move out.
immigrant
A person who moves to a country to live there permanently. In Canada, an immigrant is someone who is, or has ever been, a permanent resident.
emigrant
A person who leaves a country to live somewhere else.
non-permanent resident
A person living in Canada on a temporary permit (for example a work or study permit), or a person claiming refugee protection.
percent change
(new value − old value) ÷ old value × 100. It shows how fast something grew or shrank.
Remember from Grade 8
In Grade 8 Geography you learned about population distribution and density, the ecumene, urbanization with its push and pull factors, and how to read population pyramids and calculate a dependency ratio. In this Grade 9 unit you will use those tools on Canada's own population, with real Statistics Canada data, and you will ask what the changes mean for people and communities.
Hook: a country that keeps changing
On census day in May 2021, Statistics Canada counted 36,991,981 people in Canada. By January 1, 2024, its estimate was 40,769,890. Then something unusual happened: in 2025, Statistics Canada's preliminary estimates showed the population went down by about 102,000 people.
How can a country grow by more than a million people in one year and then shrink? By the end of this lesson, you will be able to explain it with one equation.
What is demography?
Demography is the study of populations. Geographers use it to answer where people live, who they are, and how and why that is changing.
Canada's main source of population data is the Census of Population, run by Statistics Canada every five years (2011, 2016, 2021, 2026 ...). Answering the census is required by law, so the data covers almost everyone.
- Most households get a short-form questionnaire (age, sex at birth, gender, relationships in the household, language).
- In 2021, about 1 in 4 households got the long-form questionnaire, with extra questions on immigration, Indigenous identity, education, work, income, housing and commuting.
- Between censuses, Statistics Canada publishes population estimates every three months, using records of births, deaths and immigration.
The 2021 Census was the first Canadian census to ask about gender as well as sex at birth.
The major demographic characteristics
When geographers describe a population, they usually look at:
- Size and growth rate (how many people, and how fast that number changes)
- Age structure (the share of children, working-age adults and seniors)
- Sex and gender
- Ethnocultural diversity: immigrant status, ethnic or cultural origins, racialized groups, religion
- Language: mother tongue, language spoken at home, official languages
- Indigenous identity: First Nations, Métis and Inuit populations
- Households and families: household size, living alone, housing
- Socio-economic characteristics: education, income, jobs
- Distribution: urban or rural, which provinces, density
You will study each of these in this unit. Today's focus is size and growth.
The demographic equation
Population change = (births − deaths) + (immigrants − emigrants)
- The first bracket is natural increase.
- The second bracket is net migration.
For Canada, Statistics Canada also counts the change in non-permanent residents (people here on study or work permits, and asylum claimants) as part of international migration. For a single province, you also add interprovincial migration: people moving in from, or out to, other provinces and territories.
In the past, most of Canada's growth came from natural increase. Today Canada's birth rate is low and the population is older, so there are more deaths each year than there used to be. Now international migration drives almost all growth.
Worked exampleLet's use the demographic equation with real data
Statistics Canada reported that Canada's population grew by 1,271,872 people in 2023, and that 97.6% of that growth came from international migration. About how many people did each part add?
- International migration: 1,271,872 × 0.976 ≈ 1,241,000 people.
- Natural increase: 1,271,872 × 0.024 ≈ 30,500 people (or 1,271,872 − 1,241,347 = 30,525).
- Check: 1,241,347 + 30,525 = 1,271,872. ✓
- Interpret: births were only slightly higher than deaths, so without migration Canada would have grown very little.
About 1.24 million from international migration and about 30,500 from natural increase. The 3.2% growth rate in 2023 was the highest since 1957 (Statistics Canada).
Why did Canada's population shrink in 2025?
In 2023 and 2024, many people arrived on temporary permits, especially international students and temporary workers. The federal government then lowered the number of temporary permits and set a goal of reducing non-permanent residents to less than 5% of the population by the end of 2027.
As permits ended and fewer new ones were issued, the number of non-permanent residents fell quickly. In the fourth quarter of 2025 it dropped by 171,296, and natural increase was slightly negative (−781: more deaths than births that season). Permanent immigration was the only part of the equation adding people. Overall, Statistics Canada's preliminary estimate was a decrease of 102,436 people (−0.2%) in 2025, leaving 41,472,081 people on January 1, 2026. (Preliminary numbers can be revised.)
The lesson for geographers: one change in policy can flip the whole equation.
Worked exampleLet's calculate percent change for Ontario
Ontario had 13,448,494 people in the 2016 Census and 14,223,942 in the 2021 Census. Find the percent change and compare it with Canada's 5.2%.
- Find the change: 14,223,942 − 13,448,494 = 775,448 more people.
- Divide by the old value: 775,448 ÷ 13,448,494 ≈ 0.0577.
- Multiply by 100: ≈ 5.8%.
- Compare: 5.8% is a little higher than Canada's 5.2%, so Ontario grew slightly faster than the country as a whole.
Ontario grew by about 5.8% from 2016 to 2021, a bit faster than Canada (5.2%).
| Province or territory | 2016 population | 2021 population | % change |
|---|
| Canada | 35,151,728 | 36,991,981 | +5.2 |
| Yukon | 35,874 | 40,232 | +12.1 |
| Prince Edward Island | 142,907 | 154,331 | +8.0 |
| British Columbia | 4,648,055 | 5,000,879 | +7.6 |
| Ontario | 13,448,494 | 14,223,942 | +5.8 |
| Quebec | 8,164,361 | 8,501,833 | +4.1 |
| Saskatchewan | 1,098,352 | 1,132,505 | +3.1 |
| Northwest Territories | 41,786 | 41,070 | −1.7 |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 519,716 | 510,550 | −1.8 |
Inquiry skill: asking different types of questions (A1.1)
Good geographic inquiries start with good questions. Try writing one of each type:
- Factual: What was the population of my province in 2021?
- Comparative: Did my province grow faster or slower than Canada? Why?
- Cause and effect: Why did Newfoundland and Labrador's population decline from 2016 to 2021?
- Predictive: What might happen to my town's schools if growth continues for ten years?
- Evaluative (judgement): Should Canada rely on immigration for almost all of its growth?
Evaluative and predictive questions are the richest, because you need data and reasoning to answer them.
Hands-on activityA mini-census at home
You need: paper or a spreadsheet, a pencil, and your household (or a few relatives who agree to help).
- Write a short-form questionnaire with 5 questions, for example: age group (0 to 14, 15 to 64, 65+), languages spoken at home, how long they have lived in your town, where they were born (province or country), and the number of people in the home.
- Respect privacy: do not record names. Explain that Statistics Canada also keeps every census answer confidential.
- Collect answers from at least 4 people (extended family by phone is fine).
- Make a tally table and calculate the percent in each age group.
- Write two sentences comparing your results with Canada in 2021 (16.3% aged 0 to 14, 64.8% aged 15 to 64, 19.0% aged 65+).
Look for: a clear table, percents that add to about 100%, and a comparison sentence like "My household has a larger share of children than Canada." Remind your child that a tiny sample cannot represent a country.
Just for funThe 2021 Census counted 36,991,981 people. If you tried to count them yourself at one person per second, with no sleep and no snack breaks, you would need about 428 days. Statistics Canada is faster, thanks to online questionnaires.
Your turn
1What does a demographer study?
Human populations: their size, structure (such as age and sex), distribution, and how and why they change.
2How often does Canada hold a Census of Population?
Every five years (for example 2016, 2021 and 2026).
3Write the demographic equation for a country.
Population change = (births − deaths) + (immigrants − emigrants), that is, natural increase plus net migration.
4A town has 120 births, 150 deaths, 300 people moving in and 90 people moving out in one year. What is its population change?
Natural increase: 120 − 150 = −30. Net migration: 300 − 90 = +210. Change: −30 + 210 = +180 people.
5Why did most of Canada's growth in 2023 come from international migration rather than natural increase?
Canada's birth rate is low and its population is ageing, so births are only slightly higher than deaths. International migration was very high, so it made up 97.6% of growth.
6British Columbia grew from 4,648,055 (2016) to 5,000,879 (2021). Find the percent change.
Change: 352,824. 352,824 ÷ 4,648,055 ≈ 0.0759, so about 7.6%.
7Write one predictive inquiry question about population in your community.
Example: "How many more seniors will live in my town in 2036, and what services will they need?" Look for a question about the future that data could help answer.
More practice: warm-up
1What is natural increase?
2Which organization runs Canada's census?
3What was Canada's population in the 2021 Census?
4Name three demographic characteristics.
Any three: size, growth rate, age structure, sex and gender, language, Indigenous identity, immigrant status, household size, income, education, urban or rural distribution.
5Which province's population declined from 2016 to 2021?
Newfoundland and Labrador (−1.8%). The Northwest Territories also declined (−1.7%).
More practice: on your own
1Yukon grew by 12.1% from 2016 to 2021, but Ontario added far more people. Explain how both facts can be true.
Percent change compares growth with the starting size. Yukon added about 4,400 people to a small base (35,874), a large percent. Ontario added about 775,000 people, but to a base of more than 13 million, so its percent (5.8%) was smaller.
2A province has 8,000 births, 10,000 deaths, 15,000 immigrants, 2,000 emigrants and a net interprovincial loss of 4,000. What is its population change?
Natural increase: −2,000. Net international migration: +13,000. Interprovincial: −4,000. Total: −2,000 + 13,000 − 4,000 = +7,000.
3Why is the long-form census questionnaire useful to geographers, even though only some households get it?
It collects detailed information (immigration, Indigenous identity, education, income, housing, commuting) from a large sample (about 1 in 4 households in 2021), which is enough to estimate patterns for communities across Canada.
4Turn this factual question into a cause-and-effect question: "What was PEI's growth rate from 2016 to 2021?"
Example: "Why did Prince Edward Island grow faster (8.0%) than any other province from 2016 to 2021?"
5In the fourth quarter of 2025, natural increase in Canada was −781. What does a negative natural increase mean?
There were more deaths than births in that period, so births and deaths alone made the population a little smaller.
Challenge
1Canada's 2023 growth was 1,271,872 people. Statistics Canada said growth without temporary immigration would have been about 1.2% instead of 3.2%. What does that tell you about where the extra growth came from, and why could it disappear quickly?
About two-thirds of the growth (2.0 of the 3.2 percentage points) came from the rise in non-permanent residents (students, temporary workers, asylum claimants). Their permits are temporary, so when the government cut new permits, the number could fall fast as people left or their permits expired. That is exactly what happened in 2025.
2Use the demographic equation to explain why a country with a falling birth rate can still grow, and what could make it shrink.
Growth = natural increase + net migration. Even if natural increase falls toward zero (or below), high net migration keeps the total positive. The population could shrink if natural increase becomes negative (more deaths than births as people age) and net migration drops, for example because of lower immigration targets or more people leaving.
3A student says, "Percent change is always the best way to compare growth." Do you agree? Give an example from the 2021 Census.
Partly. Percent change is fair for comparing places of different sizes, but it can hide scale. Yukon's 12.1% was the highest rate, yet it added only about 4,400 people; Ontario's 5.8% meant 775,448 more people who need housing, schools and transit. A good geographer reports both the rate and the absolute number.
Quiz
1. What is natural increase?
2. How often does Statistics Canada hold the Census of Population?
3. In 2023, about what share of Canada's population growth came from international migration?
4. A town: 200 births, 180 deaths, 50 people move in, 120 move out. Population change?
5. Which is an evaluative inquiry question?
6. Why did Statistics Canada's preliminary estimates show Canada's population decreasing in 2025?
Big idea: This lesson starts expectation D1.1 (major demographic characteristics and trends in Canada) and practises inquiry questions (A1.1) and choosing data sources (A1.2).
Common difficulties:
- Dividing by the wrong number in percent change. Always divide by the old (starting) value.
- Mixing up immigrant and emigrant. Immigrants come in; emigrants exit.
- Thinking a higher percent means more people. Small places can have big percents with few people.
How to help: Look up your own community together on Statistics Canada's Census Profile (search the town name plus "census profile 2021"). Ask: Did we grow faster or slower than Canada? Why might that be? The 2026 Census results will be released in stages, so you can watch for new numbers in the news.