D. Changing Populations · Changing Populations: Canada's People, Patterns and TrendsCanada's Age Structure: An Ageing Population
D1.1 D2.1 A1.4About 70 minutes
Learning goals- I can describe Canada's age structure using 2021 Census data and population pyramids.
- I can calculate and interpret a dependency ratio for Canada and for my province.
- I can compare the age structure of different provinces and territories, including Nunavut and the Atlantic provinces, and explain the differences.
- I can explain how the baby boom has shaped Canada's population.
Words to know
age structure
How a population is divided into age groups, such as children (0 to 14), working-age people (15 to 64) and seniors (65+).
ageing population
A population in which the share of older people is growing.
baby boom
The period from 1946 to 1965 when Canada had many more births than usual. People born then are called baby boomers.
cohort
A group of people born in the same period, who move up the pyramid together over time.
dependency ratio
(people aged 0 to 14 + people aged 65+) ÷ people aged 15 to 64 × 100. It shows how many dependants there are for every 100 working-age people.
median age
The age that splits a population in half: half are younger, half are older.
labour force
People who are working or looking for work.
Hook: more seniors than children
In the 2016 Census, for the first time, Canada counted more people aged 65 and older than children under 15. By 2021 the gap had grown: 19.0% of Canadians were 65 or older, and 16.3% were under 15 (Statistics Canada).
That is a big change for a country that, in the 1950s and 1960s, was full of babies. What happened, and what does it mean for your future?
Remember from Grade 8
You learned to read population pyramids: age groups on the vertical axis, males on one side, females on the other, and the percent of the population along the bottom. You learned the three shapes (expanding, stable, contracting) and calculated a dependency ratio. Canada's pyramid has a narrow base and a bulge for the baby boom.
The baby boom moves up the pyramid
After the Second World War, Canada had a baby boom from 1946 to 1965. That large cohort has been moving up the population pyramid like a bulge in a snake.
- The first baby boomers turned 65 in 2011.
- The last will turn 65 by 2030.
- In 2021, 21.8% of working-age people were aged 55 to 64, close to retirement: an all-time high in Canadian census history.
- In 2021 there were only 81 people aged 15 to 24 (young people starting work) for every 100 people aged 55 to 64 (people nearing retirement). In 1966 there were more than 200.
- The number of people aged 85 and older reached about 861,000, double the 2001 number, and Statistics Canada projects it could reach 2.7 million within 30 years.
(All figures: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census.)
Worked exampleLet's calculate Canada's dependency ratio
In 2021, 16.3% of Canadians were 0 to 14, 64.8% were 15 to 64 and 19.0% were 65+. Find the dependency ratio. Then find the youth and senior parts separately.
- Dependants: 16.3 + 19.0 = 35.3% of the population.
- Dependency ratio = 35.3 ÷ 64.8 × 100 ≈ 54.5.
- Youth part: 16.3 ÷ 64.8 × 100 ≈ 25.2. Senior part: 19.0 ÷ 64.8 × 100 ≈ 29.3.
- Interpret: there were about 55 dependants for every 100 working-age people, and more of them were seniors than children.
About 54 or 55 dependants per 100 working-age people (about 25 youth and 29 seniors).
A dependency ratio is a rough tool
Not everyone aged 15 to 64 works (many are students), and many people over 65 work, volunteer or care for grandchildren. The ratio is useful for comparing places and times, but it is not a measure of who "contributes". Use respectful language: seniors and children are part of the community, not a burden.
Why do provinces and territories differ?
Atlantic Canada (oldest). Newfoundland and Labrador had the highest share of seniors (23.6%). Reasons include low fertility, and many young adults moving away for jobs and school in past decades (for example, after the cod fishery moratorium of 1992), while older residents stayed.
Alberta and Saskatchewan (younger). Alberta had more children (19.0%) than seniors (14.8%), the biggest gap among the provinces. Jobs in the energy sector and other industries have drawn young workers and families from other provinces. Saskatchewan had the highest share of children among the provinces (19.7%).
Nunavut (youngest). Nunavut had 32.8% of its population under 15. Most people in Nunavut are Inuit, and Inuit are Canada's youngest population group (average age 28.9 in 2021). Higher fertility and lower life expectancy than the Canadian average both play a part.
Ontario sits close to the Canadian average, but its regions differ: many cottage-country and northern communities are older, while suburbs around Toronto have many young families.
Worked exampleLet's compare two pyramids in words
Describe how a population pyramid for Nunavut would differ from one for Newfoundland and Labrador, using 2021 Census data.
- Nunavut: 32.8% under 15 and 4.4% aged 65+ → a wide base and a narrow top, close to an expanding shape.
- Newfoundland and Labrador: 23.6% aged 65+ → a narrow base and wide upper bars: a contracting shape.
- Explain: Nunavut's younger, mostly Inuit population has higher fertility; Newfoundland and Labrador has low fertility and a history of young people moving away.
- Predict: Nunavut will need more schools, youth programs and housing for young families; Newfoundland and Labrador will need more health care, home care and long-term care.
Nunavut is close to expanding; Newfoundland and Labrador is contracting. Each needs different services.
Effects of an ageing population (a preview)
An ageing population affects every part of life (D2.1):
- Economic: many workers retiring at once can cause labour shortages in health care, the skilled trades and teaching. Fewer workers per senior means less income-tax revenue for each dollar spent on pensions and health care.
- Social: more demand for home care, long-term care, accessible housing and transit; more family caregivers.
- Political: older voters are a large group, so issues like pensions and health care get a lot of attention.
- Environmental: ageing can change where people live, for example retirees moving to smaller communities or to places with milder winters.
You will study these effects in depth in the lesson Effects of Population Change.
Hands-on activityPyramid detective with a spreadsheet
You need: a computer with a spreadsheet program, and an adult to help find data.
- Search for "Statistics Canada population pyramids" or use the 2021 Census Profile for your province to get the number of males and females in each 5-year age group.
- Make a table: Age group | Males | Females. Type male values as negative numbers.
- Insert a horizontal bar chart. Set the bars to overlap 100% with no gap.
- Find the baby-boom bulge (ages 55 to 74 in 2021) and the children's groups at the bottom.
- Calculate your province's dependency ratio.
- Write a short paragraph: How is your province similar to Canada? How is it different? Predict one service it will need more of by 2036.
Look for: a title, a source line ("Statistics Canada, 2021 Census"), correct labels, and a prediction backed by the shape of the pyramid.
Just for funCanada's 85-and-older crowd (about 861,000 people in 2021) is larger than the entire population of New Brunswick (775,610). That's a lot of birthday candles.
Your turn
1What share of Canadians were 65 or older in 2021?
19.0%, nearly 1 in 5 (Statistics Canada, 2021 Census).
2When was the baby boom, and why does it matter for Canada today?
1946 to 1965. It created a very large cohort that is now reaching retirement age, so the share of seniors is rising quickly and many workers are retiring.
3Which province had the oldest population in 2021, and which territory had the youngest?
Oldest: Newfoundland and Labrador (23.6% aged 65+). Youngest: Nunavut (32.8% under 15, 4.4% aged 65+).
4A town has 3 000 children, 9 000 people aged 15 to 64 and 2 400 seniors. Find the dependency ratio.
(3 000 + 2 400) ÷ 9 000 × 100 = 60 dependants per 100 working-age people.
5What shape of population pyramid would Nunavut have?
Close to expanding: a wide base of children and a narrow top.
6In 2021 there were 81 people aged 15 to 24 for every 100 aged 55 to 64. What problem does that suggest?
Fewer young people are entering the workforce than older people are about to leave it, so some jobs may face labour shortages.
More practice: warm-up
1What age group is usually called working age?
2What share of Canadians were under 15 in 2021?
3In which census year did seniors first outnumber children in Canada?
A group of people born in the same period who age together.
5Name one service an ageing community needs more of.
Examples: home care, long-term care, health care, accessible transit, accessible housing.
More practice: on your own
1Explain why Alberta had more children than seniors in 2021.
Alberta has attracted many young workers and families from other provinces and countries for jobs, so it has more people of child-bearing age and more children. Fewer of its residents are seniors (14.8%).
2Give two reasons Newfoundland and Labrador's population is older than average.
Low fertility, and young adults moving away for work and school over many years (for example after the 1992 cod moratorium), while older people stayed. Longer lives also add to the share of seniors.
3Why do Inuit have a younger average age (28.9) than non-Indigenous Canadians?
Inuit communities have higher fertility (more children per family) and, on average, lower life expectancy than the Canadian average, so a larger share of the population is young.
4Calculate the senior part of the dependency ratio for a province with 22% seniors and 63% working age.
22 ÷ 63 × 100 ≈ 35 seniors per 100 working-age people.
5Why might a dependency ratio give a misleading picture of a community?
It assumes everyone 15 to 64 works and nobody 65+ does. In reality many teens and young adults are students, and many seniors work, volunteer or provide child care.
Challenge
1Predict how Canada's population pyramid will look in 2041 if fertility stays near 1.3 and immigration of young adults continues. Explain each part.
Base: stays narrow, because few births. Middle: fairly wide, because immigrants are mostly young adults. Top: wider than today, because baby boomers will be 76 to 95 and people live long lives. The overall shape is contracting with a strong middle, more like a column or vase.
2Statistics Canada projects the 15 to 64 share could fall below 60% by 2051. Explain one economic and one social effect.
Economic: fewer workers relative to dependants, so labour shortages and pressure on tax revenue for pensions and health care. Social: more need for caregivers, home care and long-term care, and more families caring for older relatives.
3Two Ontario towns are the same size. Town A is a lakeside cottage community; Town B is a new suburb near Toronto. Predict how their age structures differ and what each should plan for.
Town A is probably older (retirees settle near lakes; young people leave for jobs and school): plan for health services, home care, accessible housing and transit. Town B probably has many young families: plan for schools, child care, parks and youth programs. This uses the concept of spatial significance: location shapes who lives where.
Quiz
1. What share of Canadians were 65 or older in the 2021 Census?
2. The baby boom took place from:
3. Which place had the youngest population in 2021?
4. Children 18%, working age 62%, seniors 20%. Dependency ratio?
5. Why does the Atlantic region have an older population?
6. A pyramid has a narrow base and wide upper bars. Which shape is it?
Big idea: Age structure is one of the most important demographic characteristics in D1.1, and its effects connect to D2.1. Students compare Canada with provinces and territories, as the expectation asks.
Common difficulties:
- Calculating dependency ratio with the wrong denominator. Divide dependants by the working-age group, not by the total.
- Reading percent and number pyramids the same way. Check the axis.
- Negative language about seniors. Encourage neutral words like "older adults" and "dependants (in the statistical sense)".
How to help: Talk about your own family's generations: who was a baby boomer, Gen X, millennial? Discuss how grandparents' needs and contributions change over time. If your community has a seniors' centre or long-term care home, talk about what services it offers.